Your kid won't be Messi: Study reveals near-impossible road to soccer stardom

COLCHESTER, United Kingdom — If you're a parent who's signing your kids up for soccer camp this summer, a new study has a stark reminder for anyone thinking their kids are guaranteed to make the pros. Researchers in Europe have found that only a tiny fraction of kids who attend soccer academies actually go on to play professionally. Simply put, it's an extreme long shot that your kid will be the next Lionel Messi.

Researchers from the University of Essex found that only 6% of young players in Spain make it to the professional level. This eye-opening finding comes from a 10-year investigation of Spanish soccer academies, shedding light on the challenging path young athletes face in their pursuit of a professional career.

The study, published in the International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching, followed 198 male academy soccer players from two professional clubs in Madrid. Over the next decade, they tracked these players' progress, analyzing their technical skills, psychological traits, and eventual career outcomes. The results paint a sobering picture of the highly competitive world of professional soccer and offer valuable insights for coaches, players, and parents alike.

“As many as 95% of teenage players aren’t ‘making it’ to pro football, yet they are continuing through these academies incurring the stresses and strains that go with intensive professional training, before they are eventually deselected,” says Dr. Jason Moran from the School of Sport, Rehabilitation, and Exercise Sciences, in a media release.

“The question must therefore be asked if academies are providing appropriate developmental experiences for the large proportion of players who are deselected from their systems? This relates to anything from physical literacy, to educational initiatives to prepare for life post-football.”

It's important to note that a soccer academy in Europe is quite different than what some kids are probably signing up for in the United States. Soccer academies are specialized facilities that help young talents improve their soccer abilities and find a pro club to sign with. However, even though professional clubs are actively scouting these training programs, there's still no guarantee any of these teenagers will strike it rich on the pro level.

Methodology

The researchers took a comprehensive approach to studying these young athletes:

1. They evaluated players' technical skills, including passing, shooting, ball control, and dribbling.
2. They assessed psychological traits like self-confidence, emotional control, concentration, and motivation.
3. They tracked the players' career outcomes over a 10-year period, categorizing them as professional, amateur, or retired.

This approach allowed the researchers to identify key factors that might predict a player's future success in professional soccer.

Key Results

The study's findings reveal several crucial insights:

1. Only 12 out of 198 players (6.1%) made it to the professional level.
2. Of those 12, only 7 reached Spain's highest professional league within 10 years.
3. Future professional players showed higher levels of self-confidence and better ball control skills compared to their amateur counterparts.
4. There were no significant differences between professional and amateur players in shooting and passing abilities.
5. A strong relative age effect was observed, with over 75% of players born in the first six months of the year.

These results highlight the extremely competitive nature of professional soccer and suggest that certain psychological and technical skills may be more important than others in predicting future success.

Study Limitations

While the study provides valuable insights, it's important to note some limitations:

1. The study only tracked players up to 2021, meaning some might still achieve professional status in the future.
2. The classification of “professional” included players who pursued opportunities abroad in lower-ranked leagues.
3. The technical skill evaluations were subjective, based on coaches' assessments.
4. The study only focused on Spanish academies, so results might differ in other countries or soccer cultures.

These limitations remind us that while the study offers important findings, the path to professional soccer is complex and can vary significantly between individuals and contexts.

Takeaways

The study's findings have several important implications for soccer academies, coaches, and young players. The researchers say that academies in Europe might need to reconsider their approach, given the low conversion rate from academy to professional status.

Some clubs, like Brentford FC, have already moved away from traditional academy systems due to financial concerns. The study recommends that soccer coaches focus on developing players' self-confidence and ball-control skills, as these appear to be key differentiators between future professionals and amateurs.

Given the low success rate, it's also crucial to provide young players with a well-rounded education and support system, recognizing that most will not become professional soccer players. Simply put, have a realistic backup plan for kids who aren't talented enough to become pro athletes. While the dream of becoming a professional soccer player remains alive for many young athletes, this study serves as a reality check for families looking for a lottery ticket to fame and fortune.